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VISORIA · How we work
METHODOLOGY

What we know, where we know it from, how current it is and what we do not know

This page does not describe a product. It describes the protocol the product is made with: which sources we admit and which one may hold up a figure, what we check before publishing, what we do when two records disagree, how we state that a figure is missing, and when we decide not to produce a study at all.

It is here so that it can be cited, contrasted and argued with. If any figure of ours fails to meet what this page says, the mistake is ours and we want to hear about it.

The motto, and what it commits us to

Evidence first

It is the signature of the firm and, at the same time, a working rule. Three principles follow from it, and they govern everything else.

Admission of sources

Three categories, and only one can hold up a figure

They are not levels of quality and they are not interchangeable. They decide what may stand behind a published number.

A

Official primary

The record of the body that produces the data: official statistics agencies, monetary and supervisory authorities, and public registers.

This is the only category that can directly hold up a published figure.

B

Serious secondary

Trade associations, multilateral bodies and research houses with a published methodology. They provide context and serve to cross-check.

On its own it does not hold up a headline figure.

C

Reference

Press, commercial aggregators and consultancies without an open methodology. Their function is to point the search towards the original record.

The figure is taken from that primary source and that is what gets cited, not the reference.

An artificial intelligence summary is not a source of any category

It can indicate where to look. What gets cited is the document that was then opened and verified. This applies to an agent reading this page as well: its answer about a Colombian sector does not become a «VISORIA source» by citing us.

Before publishing

Two checks that are never skipped

01

That the source still exists

Sources go down, change address and withdraw datasets. Each one is opened again before publishing. A stored address does not prove the document is still alive, and verifying is not the same as filing a link.

02

That the data does not arrive broken

Public data can arrive with defects of form. The word is repaired, never the figure, and the repair is recorded so that somebody can review it. A technical repair does not become a silent alteration of the data.

When records disagree

Both are published, and what each one measures is explained

Two valid sources can give different figures for the same phenomenon because they measure different things: perimeters, periods and definitions that are not the same. That difference is information, not a nuisance.

If the difference can be explained methodologically, both measurements are presented with their scope. If it cannot be explained yet, the figure stays out until the discrepancy is resolved.

When the figure is missing

Missing comes in several forms, and they are not the same

Saying «it does not exist» when all that has been shown is «it does not appear in the database I consulted» is not declaring an absence: it is asserting something that was never checked. That is why the report says which of these it is.

  1. It does not exist. Nobody produces it.
  2. It is not public. It exists and is not published.
  3. It is not in the source consulted. It may be in another one.
  4. The entity reports to a different body. The figure exists in another register. It is looked for there before it is declared absent.
  5. It is not comparable. It exists, but mixing it with the rest would produce a false total.
  6. There is not enough evidence. There are indications and they do not reach far enough to hold up a figure.

A declared gap is worth more than an invented figure, and it saves the search for whoever would have done it.

The three dates

Source, cut-off and publication are three different things

None of them can be deduced from the others, and calling them all «updated» erases the difference exactly where it matters.

Source

Who produced the figure. It sits next to the figure, inside the study.

Cut-off

How far the information reaches. It lives on the cover of the report, in its record and beside each figure it applies to.

Publication

The day VISORIA released the study. It is the one the buyer sees in the catalogue.

A study published in September may incorporate information up to August, and that is not a defect: it is what you need to be able to read without asking.

Before promising a study

When we can, when we warn, and when we say no

A sector study is only promised if there is enough public evidence to hold it up, and that is checked before it is offered. It is not a quality score. It is a rule of admission.

Ample evidence

We can

The public evidence is enough to build an aggregate analysis of the sector.

Narrow evidence

We can, and we warn

It is done, stating what narrow evidence means for the reading, and it is said before charging.

Insufficient evidence

We say no

When the analysis would stop being an aggregate and start describing identifiable firms.

That VISORIA can answer «with the available evidence we do not recommend producing this study» is part of the product. Saying no when the evidence does not reach protects the decision the study is meant to inform.

What a study contains

The same in all of them, so that they can be compared

Size of the sector, PESTAL environment, Porter’s five forces, competitive map, financial analysis of the main players and scenarios to 2030. Every figure with its source and its cut-off, and a methodological note setting out the limits of each source used.